NAIROBI— As the U.S-Israeli military campaign against Iran, which was launched on February 28 2026, enters its second week, a new situational assessment points to a “significant” spillover that has the potential to destabilize the restive region.
Somaliland, a breakaway region in Somalia, now stand at the centre of heightened economic and security risks that threaten to deepen their longstanding divide.
According to the assessment by the Horizon Analysts and Researchers Network (HARN), Somaliland’s Berbera port and airstrip—strategically located less than 200 miles from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—have become a focal point of vulnerability.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December 2025, combined with reported Israeli security presence and UAE-funded upgrades, has triggered explicit Houthi threats.
With Iranian-backed Houthis already disrupting Red Sea shipping and raising risks around the strait, Berbera faces potential direct targeting. Major carriers are rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days and thousands of dollars per container.
Insurance premiums have surged, inflating import costs for fuel, food and goods in a region already reeling from Brent crude spikes above $80 per barrel.
These disruptions will significantly hit Somaliland’s economic ambitions hard while rippling into Somalia’s shared coastline. Higher fuel and transport prices are driving inflation and straining food security for both entities, compounding debt pressures and dependence on Red Sea trade routes.
The assessment further points to a security threats are even more acute. Al-Shabaab has deepened operational ties with the Houthis since 2024, including weapons smuggling, drone and IED training, and logistics support, according to UN reports.
Analysts warn this cooperation could escalate piracy in the Gulf of Aden and attacks on shipping off Somalia’s coast. Any Israeli or US military footprint in Somaliland risks provoking Somalia’s federal government, which continues to reject Somaliland’s independence and Israel’s recognition.
Mogadishu has warned that such moves could draw it into confrontation, while strengthening al-Shabaab’s anti-foreign narrative and recruitment.
The war further complicates US and African Union counter-terrorism missions in Somalia, heightening maritime insecurity and testing Djibouti’s neutrality. Short-term effects centre on economic shocks and proxy risks; a prolonged conflict could entrench Houthi-al-Shabaab links and polarise Somalia-Somaliland relations further.
As the African Union calls for restraint, the fragile Somali Peninsula finds itself an unwilling front in the Middle East conflict. Monitoring Houthi actions and Red Sea developments will be critical in the weeks ahead.
