NAIROBI – Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi has sparked intense debate in Kenyan political circles with a blunt assessment that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is effectively “dead” following the passing of its founder, Raila Odinga, in October 2025.
In a widely circulated statement, the outspoken lawyer hailed the late Raila Odinga as a political legend and Kenya’s “center of gravity” for three decades. Ahmednasir credited Odinga with building ODM into a formidable “political behemoth,” despite repeated presidential election losses, and noted his unmatched networks, charisma and ability to shape post-election realignments.
It has been part of my political refrain for sometime to say yet again that Hon Raila was the most consequential politician in Kenyan politics in the past three decades. He built a political behemoth called ODM. He lost every presidential elections he participated in but won in…
— Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC (@ahmednasirlaw) January 18, 2026
However, Ahmednasir argued that ODM’s survival without Odinga is impossible in Kenya’s tribal-driven politics. “Raila died a LEGEND,” he wrote urging party leaders to abandon nostalgic tributes and face reality. He dismissed claims that Odinga’s political infrastructure could be inherited by family members or allies, stating emphatically that “Raila can’t be cloned.”
Targeting potential successors, Ahmednasir criticized Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga – Raila’s elder brother and current party leader – as sharing only a surname with the late icon. He described Governor James Orengo as “wilted” by unfulfilled ambitions while noting younger figures like Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Caroli Omondi are not yet ready. “We don’t have a Luo heir to Raila’s political throne,” he asserted.
Looking ahead to the 2027 elections, Ahmednasir predicted ODM’s obliteration in key regions. In Nairobi, he foresaw a “gladiatorial contest” between former impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Babu Owino, with Kalonzo Musyoka observing. On the Coast, he anticipated fragmentation with leaders like Speaker Amason Kingi, Mining CS Hassan Joho, and Kwale Governor Fatuma Achani pulling counties in different directions. Northern Kenya, he said, would fall to UDA and UDM advances.
His advice to Oburu: Focus exclusively on dominating Luo Nyanza, treating any gains elsewhere as a “bonus,” and manage an “orderly retreat” from national ambitions. “ODM has no Raila to run a national party,” he concluded.
The statement comes amid deepening ODM succession rifts with Raila’s children Winnie and Junior backing youthful leaders, intensifying tensions over the party’s future direction.
